“There are too many contrary instances of popes the Holy Spirit would obviously not have picked.”

You know who said that? Joseph Cardinal Ratzinger, answering a question on Bavarian television in 1997 about if the Holy Spirit picks the pope.

Here's what he said prior to the above statement:

“I would not say so, in the sense that the Holy Spirit picks out the pope. ... I would say that the Spirit does not exactly take control of the affair, but rather like a good educator, as it were, leaves us much space, much freedom, without entirely abandoning us. Thus the Spirit’s role should be understood in a much more elastic sense, not that he dictates the candidate for whom one must vote. Probably the only assurance he offers is that the thing cannot be totally ruined.”

(From this John Allen article; HT: Godspy.)